| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes will represent the lowest observed temperature in Philadelphia on March 27, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather risk and for anyone tracking seasonal transition in the Mid-Atlantic.
Late March is a transitional period when Philadelphia can experience anything from late-winter cold snaps to early-spring mild nights, so markets reflect a wide range of plausible lows. Outcomes typically depend on the timing of synoptic systems, cloud cover, and local influences such as urban heating and proximity to the Delaware River. Historical variability on this date means forecasts can change rapidly in the week leading up to the event.
Market prices represent the crowd’s aggregated view of which temperature-range outcome is most likely given current information; they move as new observations and forecasts arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of changing odds but always cross-check underlying meteorological data and the market’s official settlement rules.
The market will settle according to the official source and observation protocol specified on the contract page; that typically references an official National Weather Service or local official temperature observation for the calendar date, so check the market’s settlement description to see which station, observation window, and rounding rules apply.
This market uses six mutually exclusive temperature-range outcomes that partition the range of plausible overnight lows; each outcome represents a specific interval (e.g., range A, range B, etc.) as listed on the contract page, so review the outcome labels there to know which interval corresponds to each option.
The listed close time is currently TBD; settlement usually follows the publication of official daily observations for March 27 and may occur once the responsible agency posts the final daily summary—check the market page for the announced trading close and the settlement timing once they are set.
Historical records show large year-to-year variability on late-March dates, so climatology provides a broad baseline but limited precision; traders often combine climatological context with current model guidance for a more actionable view.
Watch medium- and short-range model runs (GFS, ECMWF, high-resolution convection-allowing models), NWS local forecasts and discussions, surface observations and trends at official Philly stations, satellite/cloud cover trends, and upstream frontal timing—changes in these datasets in the 48–72 hours prior are most likely to shift market expectations.