| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the minimum air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 26, 2026; it matters for people and businesses exposed to weather risk and for those testing short-range forecast skill.
Late March is a transitional month in the mid‑Atlantic, when winterlike intrusions can still bring unusually cold nights but spring warming also becomes more likely. Day‑to‑day outcomes depend heavily on the synoptic pattern, cloud cover, and the timing of frontal passages, so markets like this aggregate many data sources and trader expectations into a single observable price signal.
Odds in this context summarize the market’s consensus expectation at a given moment and will change as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not a guarantee of the final measurement, which is set by the contract’s official temperature source and settlement rules.
The settled value will be the official observation from the station and data source named in the event's contract; consult the event page for the designated NWS/ASOS/COOP station or other official source used for settlement.
The contract defines the time window (for example, local calendar date 00:00–23:59 or a specified UTC interval) and how daylight‑saving time is handled; check the event rules to see the precise start/end times used for settlement.
Settlement follows the exchange's published contingency procedures, which typically use the official NWS record, a designated backup station, or an adjudication process described on the event page—review those terms before trading.
A late‑season surge of cold air (arctic/polar advection) combined with clear skies, light winds, and potential snow cover overnight promotes strong radiational cooling and can lead to unusually low minima.
Use a mix of deterministic and ensemble model guidance for pattern and timing, monitor upper‑air soundings and local surface observations near Philadelphia, and update expectations as successive model runs and real‑time observations refine the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and precipitation.