| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the minimum air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 25, 2026 will be; it matters for weather-sensitive planning such as energy demand, transportation, and public safety. Market prices aggregate available forecasts and observations into a real-time signal about expected conditions for that specific date.
Late March is a transitional month with frequent swings between mild and cold conditions; synoptic-scale features (cold fronts, inland troughs, or coastal storms) drive much of the day-to-day variability. Official temperatures are recorded by designated observing stations and national meteorological services, so outcomes reflect the specific reporting site and measurement protocol named in the contract.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of forecasters and participants based on model runs, observations, and emerging weather trends; they update as new information arrives and should be treated as a real‑time indicator rather than a certainty.
The contract is settled using the official temperature value specified on the event page—usually the daily minimum air temperature reported by a named observing station or dataset; check the event rules for the precise reporting station, measurement height, and time window that will be used.
The market page will show the trading close time; final settlement typically occurs after the designated meteorological authority publishes the official daily record for Mar 25, 2026, which may take hours or days—see the event’s settlement policy for exact timing.
Participants follow major model runs and ensemble forecasts for changes in temperature trends, frontal timing, cloud and precipitation forecasts; significant model updates or convergence/divergence among models are common drivers of price movement for this date.
Settlement is based on the specific reporting station or dataset named in the contract, not an average across the metropolitan area—local microclimate differences mean station choice can materially affect the recorded low.
Most event rules include a fallback or dispute procedure (e.g., use of secondary datasets or official post-event corrections); consult the market’s settlement and dispute clauses to see how missing or corrected data will be handled.