| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the lowest observed air temperature in Philadelphia on March 24, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and public safety in a densely populated city during a season of large weather variability.
Late March is a transitional month for Philadelphia: the region can see either lingering winter air or early spring warmth. Historical records and recent climate trends show both warming and strong day-to-day variability, so forecasts several days out can change substantially as synoptic patterns evolve. This market aggregates trader views about which of several temperature outcomes will occur on that specific calendar date.
Market prices should be read as the crowd’s relative expectation about which outcome will occur; prices move when participants incorporate new observations and forecast model updates. Use market prices alongside official forecasts and model guidance to track how expectations change as the date approaches.
Settlement follows the event rules specified by the platform: an authoritative observational data source and precise measurement definition are named in the market description. The winning outcome is the one that matches the reported lowest air temperature from that designated source for the defined time window.
The market description should list the official station or dataset used for settlement (for example, an NWS/NOAA station or a specified METAR/ASOS/CSVT product). Check the market page for the named source; if it’s not listed, contact the platform for the settlement specification.
The event’s settlement rules define the date/time convention (typically the calendar date in local time at the reporting station). Refer to the market’s settlement terms to see whether the 24‑hour period is local midnight-to-midnight or uses another specified interval.
The platform uses a single predesignated authoritative record as stated in the market rules; discrepancies across instruments are resolved by deferring to that specified source. If unusual conditions or data errors occur, the market’s dispute and arbitration procedures apply as described by the exchange.
Follow short‑range NWP outputs and ensembles, local NWS forecasts and forecast discussions, surface and upper‑air analyses, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, and real‑time surface observations from the designated settlement station. Rapid changes in model runs and ensemble spread often drive meaningful shifts in outcome expectations.