| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 23, 2026, which matters for energy demand, transportation planning, and weather-sensitive businesses. Accurate signals can help organizations prepare for potential freezing conditions or unseasonably mild nights.
Late March is a transitional month for the Northeast U.S., with large day-to-day variability driven by storm tracks and the position of air masses. Philadelphia has a history of both late-season cold snaps and rapid warm-ups; urban heat island effects, station siting, and recent snow cover can all alter the reported minimum. Traders should consider both synoptic patterns and local surface conditions when forming expectations.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s view of which discrete outcome will occur, not a fixed meteorological forecast; interpret price moves as changes in collective expectations. Always check the event page for the designated observation station, measurement units, rounding conventions, and settlement rules to map market outcomes to real-world temperatures.
The event is settled using the official observing station specified in the market rules; consult the event page to confirm the designated station (for example, an NWS ASOS/COOP station) and rely on that station’s reported values for settlement.
The applicable time window is defined in the event’s settlement rules—commonly the local calendar day (00:00–23:59) or a specific observation period—so check the event page for the exact start and end times before trading.
Outcome labels reflect predefined bins or rounding conventions set by the market; review the outcome definitions and the settlement specification on the event page to see whether measurements are rounded, truncated, or taken as reported.
Settlement timing depends on when the designated observing agency publishes the official values and the market’s verification window; settlement may occur hours to a few days after the observation and the event page lists the expected settlement policy and any dispute procedures.
A late arrival of cold air behind a strong cold front, clearing skies overnight, calm winds, or recent snowfall would push minima colder; sustained southerly flow, thick cloud cover, precipitation, or stronger mixing would tend to keep nighttime temperatures higher—monitor short-range models, surface analyses, and nearby station reports in that window.