| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will record the lowest temperature in Philadelphia on March 22, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-sensitive decision makers who want to hedge or express views on a specific day’s coldest reading in the city.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mid-Atlantic when both lingering winter cold and early spring warmth are possible; day-to-day outcomes are driven by the presence or absence of cold air masses and frontal passages. Philadelphia’s coastal location and urban environment can modify temperatures, so single-day extremes reflect a mix of synoptic-scale patterns and local effects. The Kalshi contract for this event defines discrete outcome bins and will settle against an official observing source specified in the contract rules.
Market odds represent the collective judgment of traders based on available forecasts and evolving observations; they update as new model runs and on-the-ground data arrive. Use them to gauge market sentiment and how expectations shift, not as fixed certainties.
Settlement will use the official observing source specified in the contract rules; that source is typically an NWS/NOAA-designated station for Philadelphia and the market page will list the exact station and measurement standard to be used.
Most contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time, Eastern) at the designated observing station, but you should confirm the exact observation interval in the market’s settlement specifications.
The six outcomes are predefined temperature bins or ranges that collectively cover plausible lowest-temperature values for the day; the contract page lists the exact numeric ranges for each outcome.
The contract’s settlement rules specify fallbacks: common approaches include using the nearest valid observation from an alternate official station, applying NWS archival revisions, or invoking a published arbitration procedure; consult the market’s settlement policy for the precise method.
Track short-range numerical model guidance (e.g., latest deterministic and ensemble runs), National Weather Service forecasts and discussions for Philadelphia, real-time surface observations from the official station and nearby sites, satellite and radar for frontal timing, and local meteorologist updates; also watch the market’s own updates and settlement notices.