| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in Philadelphia will be on March 21, 2026; it matters for planning around energy demand, travel disruptions, agriculture, and short-term weather risk. Traders use current forecasts and local climatology to express expectations about how cold that specific date will be.
Late March is a transitional month: climatologically temperatures are rising toward spring, but significant variability remains and cold air intrusions or late-season storms can still produce low readings. Historical records show that some years produce near-winter lows on dates in late March, so both synoptic-scale weather patterns and local conditions matter for this single-day outcome.
Market odds reflect the aggregated views of traders and update as new model output, observations, and news arrive; they show relative market sentiment about which temperature range will be the lowest on that date. Use them as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a static forecast.
Check the market's listing for its stated close time and resolution window; the lowest temperature is typically determined over the official local-calendar date for March 21 at the specified observing station, with the exact closure and resolution times given in the market rules.
The market will resolve using the specific observing station or official dataset named in its resolution rules (commonly the local NWS/NOAA climate station used for Philadelphia); consult the market description to confirm the exact station and data source.
There are six mutually exclusive outcomes, each corresponding to a distinct temperature range as defined in the contract; after the observing period ends, the single outcome whose range contains the recorded minimum temperature will be the winning outcome.
A late cold snap or Arctic front can sharply lower the minimum, while fresh snow enhances nighttime cooling; conversely, cloudier, windier, or maritime-influenced storms tend to keep minima higher—timing relative to the date and local microclimates determines the net effect.
Resolution follows the market's contingency rules: typically the final quality-controlled official value from the designated source is used, and if that is unavailable the exchange will follow its published procedure (e.g., use an alternate official station or the NWS-verified record) as stated in the market's resolution policy.