| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 20, 2026; outcomes matter because daily low temperatures affect energy demand, travel impacts, and public safety planning.
March 20 falls in the transitional spring season, when Philadelphia can see a wide range of conditions from lingering cold air to early-season warmth; coastal influence, synoptic-scale systems, and residual snowpack (if present) all shape potential lows. Historical variability around the equinox means forecasts can change rapidly in the days before the date.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations based on weather forecasts, observational networks, and risk preferences — they are dynamic reflections of those inputs and should be read as a consensus signal that updates with new information.
The market contract specifies the official reporting station and data source (for example, a National Weather Service observation station); consult the event's contract page on KALSHI for the exact station and authoritative dataset used for settlement.
The contract on the event page defines the observation window and time zone (typically the official 24‑hour local calendar day used by the chosen reporting station); check the event details for the precise start and end times used for settlement.
Settlement rules on the contract specify rounding conventions, inclusivity of bin endpoints, and tie‑breaking procedures; those resolution rules are authoritative and available on the event page.
Settlement typically occurs after the official observations for the defined period are published by the reporting agency; because this event lists 'Closes: TBD', the platform will publish the settlement timeline and expected posting time once final details are set on the contract page.
Major drivers include new numerical weather model runs and ensemble updates (especially 48–72 hour solutions), fresh surface and upper-air observations that alter the expected frontal timing, satellite/radar trends indicating cloud cover or precipitation changes, and any short‑range reports of snow or freezing conditions near the observation site.