| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 14° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 21° to 22° | 8% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 15° to 16° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 19° to 20° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 17° to 18° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $688 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 2, 2026 will be; it matters to traders, energy managers, event planners, and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure in the region.
Early March in the Mid-Atlantic can feature rapid swings between mild and cold conditions due to shifting storm tracks and Arctic intrusions. Historical variability and coastal influences mean outcomes can change with short-term forecast updates, making real-time information and model runs especially relevant.
Market prices aggregate participants' collective expectations about which temperature outcome will occur and will update as new meteorological information arrives; interpret prices as a dynamic summary of market beliefs rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will settle to the specific official observing station or published data source named in the market's rules; check the event page for the designated settlement source before trading.
Settlement typically uses the minimum observed temperature recorded during the local calendar date (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the designated station, reported in the units specified on the market page; confirm the exact definitions on the event details.
Settlement timing is determined by the market operator and usually occurs after the official observational dataset for the date is published and verified; the platform will state the expected settlement window and any potential delays.
Many markets rely on quality-controlled, official datasets; if the designated source issues post-event adjustments, settlement will follow the operator's stated policy on whether and how such corrections are handled—review the settlement rules for details.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model trends for temperature and frontal timing, local NWS forecast discussions and warnings, satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, and official hourly station observations at the designated settlement site.