| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest observed air temperature in Philadelphia on March 19, 2026. It matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, travel, and local operations.
Philadelphia sits in the mid-Atlantic where March temperatures can swing from late-winter cold snaps to early-spring mild spells; synoptic-scale patterns (Arctic intrusions, coastal systems) drive much of that variability. Official observations used for comparisons typically come from National Weather Service/NOAA-designated stations or other specified local gauges, and the market will use the source named in its settlement rules.
Market odds reflect the evolving consensus of traders as new meteorological data arrives; they are a real-time signal of expectations, not a guarantee of the realized temperature. Use them alongside official forecasts and the market's settlement rules when forming a view.
The market will settle based on the authoritative observation source listed in the event's settlement rules on the event page; that typically names a specific NWS/NOAA or designated local station—check the event description for the exact source.
Such markets normally use the local calendar day for the listed location (Eastern Time) and the midnight-to-midnight window specified by the exchange; confirm the precise time window in the event's settlement rules.
This market has six discrete outcomes defined by fixed temperature bins or thresholds; the event page lists the exact boundaries for each outcome and those definitions determine which outcome wins.
Settlement follows the exchange's contingency procedures: it may use an alternate specified station, secondary official sources, or apply delay/void rules depending on the situation—see the market's settlement policy for details.
The timeline depends on when the authoritative observation is published and the exchange's verification steps; settlements are commonly finalized within a few days after the observation but check the event page for the official settlement timeline.