| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21° to 22° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market forecasts the lowest air temperature observed in Philadelphia on March 18, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning and reflects traders' aggregated expectations for that day's overnight minimum.
Philadelphia in mid‑March is climatologically transitional and can experience a wide range of conditions driven by synoptic-scale patterns, late‑season cold fronts, or mild Pacific influences. Extremes on a single date are driven by the specific storm track, cloud cover, snow/soil conditions, and local radiational cooling; the market settles to an official observation source specified on the contract. The listed six outcomes partition the possible minimum temperature range into discrete buckets for trading.
Market prices summarize trader sentiment about which temperature bucket will contain the daily low and shift as forecasts and observations change. Interpret prices as relative, market‑implied expectations tied to the contract's exact definitions rather than fixed measurements.
The contract specifies the single official observation source used for settlement; typically this is the National Weather Service observation for the Philadelphia reporting location named on the event page. Refer to the Kalshi contract details for the exact station identifier and measurement protocol.
The market uses the local calendar date as defined in the contract—generally the 24‑hour period from 00:00 to 23:59:59 local Philadelphia time for March 18, with any daylight saving adjustments applied. Confirm the contract for precise timezone and cutoff rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range (bucket) listed on the event page; buckets are mutually exclusive and together cover all possible minima. Check the event contract for the exact numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive to determine which bucket a final observation will fall into.
Traders commonly monitor National Weather Service observations and forecasts, global and high‑resolution model guidance (including ensembles), radar and satellite imagery, local surface observations, snow cover maps, and short‑term mesoscale forecasts that influence overnight minima.
Settlement follows the single official source and procedure specified in the contract; that designated observation governs the result. Any disputes or procedural questions are resolved under the exchange's published settlement and arbitration rules—see the event page for those details.