| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 16, 2026 will be. It matters for traders and observers because late-winter temperature extremes affect energy demand, travel, and local weather impacts.
Mid-March in Philadelphia is a transitional period with wide day-to-day variability driven by frontal passages, occasional Arctic intrusions, or warm maritime air. Historical daily lows on this date can vary significantly, so forecasts combine model guidance, recent observations, and synoptic-scale patterns.
Market prices and odds summarize participants' collective expectations about which temperature range will be the minimum that day. Treat market movements as a real-time signal that updates as forecast models and observations change, rather than a fixed prediction.
The market resolves to the lowest official air temperature as measured at the designated observation site and time window specified on the market page; this is typically the minimum air temperature recorded on the local calendar date at that station and measured at standard instrumentation height. Check the market description for the specified station and measurement conventions.
KALSHI will name the resolution source in the market rules on the event page; common sources are National Weather Service/NOAA observation stations or a specified local meteorological station. If the source is not clear, consult the market's resolution text or contact KALSHI support for clarification.
Each outcome corresponds to a distinct, non‑overlapping temperature range listed on the market page; read the labels and endpoints there to know which numeric interval you are selecting. Make sure you understand whether range endpoints are inclusive or exclusive based on the market's resolution rules.
The relevant period is the local calendar date for Philadelphia (Eastern Time) as specified in the market rules, typically 00:00 to 23:59 local time; confirm the precise start/end times and time zone on the market page to avoid ambiguity.
Follow KALSHI's published resolution and contingency policies: the platform will state how it handles missing or questionable data (for example, using a backup official dataset, an alternative station, or declaring the market unresolved). Check the market rules in advance so you know the resolution procedure.