| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which pre-defined temperature interval will contain Philadelphia's lowest observed air temperature on March 15, 2026. It matters for traders, weather hedgers, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in the Philadelphia area.
Mid-March in Philadelphia is a transitional period with large day-to-day swings driven by passing cold fronts, coastal systems, and radiational cooling on clear nights. Historical March 15 lows span a wide range; long-term warming trends and local factors such as urban heat island effects and station siting influence the official recorded minimum.
Market odds aggregate participants' real-time assessments of meteorological conditions and will respond to new model guidance and observations; use them as a dynamic consensus signal, not a certainty.
Settlement uses the official lowest observed air temperature for the local calendar date (00:00–23:59 local time) as reported by the contract-specified official observing source; consult the event rules for the exact time standard and station.
The event page names the official observing station or dataset used for settlement (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA climate station for Philadelphia); check the market's event description to confirm the precise station and dataset.
The six outcomes are predefined, non-overlapping temperature intervals that together cover the expected range of plausible minima; the observed official minimum is placed into the interval whose boundaries include that value, and that interval is declared the winning outcome.
Contracts typically follow NOAA/NWS/NCEI quality-control procedures and the event's contingency rules: if the primary observation is missing or invalid, the market will apply the fallback specified in the event rules (for example using the nearest official station or final quality-controlled dataset).
Key short-range drivers include the exact timing of any frontal passage (overnight vs. daytime), cloud cover trends through the night, wind speeds and direction, recent precipitation and snow cover, and local temperature advection from coastal or continental air masses; monitor issued local forecasts and surface observations for updates.