| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 14, 2026 will be. The result matters to people and businesses with weather exposure (transportation, energy, outdoor events) and to traders who use weather information to hedge or speculate.
Philadelphia in mid‑March sits in a transitional season: winter air masses can still produce freezing readings, while early spring patterns bring milder conditions. Synoptic drivers such as Arctic highs, coastal lows, cloud cover, and recent snowfall all shape day‑to‑day variability; the market aggregates traders’ responses to forecast model output and observational updates.
Market odds reflect the collective view of participants given available forecasts and information and will change as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real‑time signal that incorporates both meteorological forecasts and trader expectations rather than as a fixed forecast.
Check the contract rules on the trading platform: settlement usually cites a specified official observation (for example an NWS or airport climate station) and that source is used to determine the lowest reported temperature for the calendar day.
Contract terms define the observation window—typically the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the named date—and the platform uses the official source’s reported minimum within that window; consult the event’s rule text for precise timing.
Near‑term model updates, satellite and surface observations, and forecast ensembles can shift expectations quickly; as confidence rises (or model solutions converge/diverge), trading usually reacts, reflecting updated expectations for the day’s minimum temperature.
Settlement depends on the specific official station named in the contract; local differences (coastal vs inland, urban heat island, elevation) matter for on‑the‑ground experience but only affect the outcome if they influence the chosen reference station’s reading.
Historically, mid‑March can produce a wide range of lows—from late‑winter cold snaps to mild spring nights—so traders monitor synoptic pattern shifts and local indicators rather than assuming a narrow outcome; past variability implies the market will be sensitive to short‑term forecast changes.