| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined outcome will correspond to the lowest official air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on Mar 13, 2026. It matters because it aggregates real‑time information and forecasts about a specific weather observation that affects travel, energy demand, and public safety planning.
Philadelphia’s early‑March temperatures can swing widely depending on the timing of cold air outbreaks, coastal influences, and storm tracks. Historical March dates have produced both late‑winter cold snaps and milder conditions, so forecasts in the days before the date tend to be sensitive to evolving synoptic model runs and mesoscale details. The market translates those evolving signals into tradable outcomes tied to an official measurement.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which outcome will be the official lowest temperature on that date; they move as new forecasts, observations, and model guidance arrive. Use prices as a summary of market sentiment, while consulting official sources for the definitive measurement and settlement rules.
The market settles to the official lowest air temperature recorded on the local calendar date at the observing location specified in the contract. That includes the measurement instrument type and height defined by the data provider; check the contract for the precise measurement definition.
The exchange or contract page lists the official data source used for settlement (for example, a named NOAA/NWS station, airport ASOS, or an NCEI dataset). If the contract does not specify on the event page, consult the market’s settlement rules or contact the exchange for the authoritative source.
This market has six outcomes; each represents a predefined temperature bin or threshold specified in the contract. Review the event description on the exchange to see the exact temperature ranges associated with each outcome.
The listed close time for trading is currently TBD. Final settlement typically occurs after the official observations for Mar 13 are published and any required quality control is completed; the exchange will announce the resolution timing and the data source used for posting the result.
Key price movers include updated model runs that change the timing of a front or cold air intrusion, satellite and radar observations confirming cloud or precipitation trends, local station reports (e.g., pre‑dawn readings), and changes in snow cover forecasts—each can materially alter expectations for the lowest temperature.