| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 12, 2026; it matters to traders who want to express views on near-term weather and to anyone tracking temperature-driven impacts such as energy demand, travel, and public safety.
Philadelphia in early March sits in a transitional season: it can still experience late-winter cold spells or milder spring conditions depending on the larger-scale pattern. Historical variability is large at this time of year because of competing influences from arctic/continental air masses and moderating coastal influences.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about the most likely temperature outcome and update as new observations and model forecasts arrive; use them as a realtime gauge of consensus rather than a deterministic forecast.
Settlement uses the observing station and definition specified on this event's contract (typically an official National Weather Service or ASOS/AWOS station). Check the event page for the named reporting site and the exact measurement protocol; the quoted low will be the lowest official air temperature recorded during the contract's stated observation window.
The contract will state the precise measurement window (for example a local calendar day or a 24‑hour period tied to UTC times); consult the event details for the exact start and end times used for determining the daily minimum.
Final observed temperatures are usually available after the National Weather Service daily climate summary or the designated station's daily output is published; the platform will follow its specified settlement timetable once that source is available and will announce settlement after verifying the official record.
Short‑range weather models, surface observations, and forecasts of cloud cover, wind, and precipitation can shift expectations rapidly in the final two days; traders often watch late‑model runs and real‑time station observations because small changes in cloudiness or wind overnight can materially affect the low.
Historical daily climate records maintained by the National Weather Service and local climate summaries provide past March 12 minima; consult those official archives to see how typical or anomalous a given observed low would be, and remember to compare using the same observation site and measurement definition as this contract.