| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 94% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 7% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be recorded as the lowest air temperature in Philadelphia on March 11, 2026. It matters because overnight minimums affect energy demand, transportation, public health messaging, and short-term weather risk planning.
March is a transitional month for the Philadelphia region, so outcomes can be driven by either lingering winter air masses or moderating spring conditions. Short-term synoptic features (cold fronts, arctic intrusions) and local factors (urban heat island, cloud cover, snowpack) have historically produced wide variability on individual March dates. The market aggregates traders' updated expectations in real time as forecasts and observations evolve.
Market prices express the collective view of participants about which outcome will occur and move as new weather model runs, observations, and analyses arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of changing expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will resolve to the official data source specified in the contract rules; typically this is an official NWS/NOAA reporting station for the Philadelphia area. Check the event's rule page for the exact station identifier and any fallback rules.
Resolution normally uses the daily minimum for the calendar date in the station's local time as defined by the contract — commonly midnight-to-midnight local time — but you should confirm the precise window and time zone in the event rules.
Resolution occurs after the designated official daily summary or observation becomes available and as specified by KALSHI's rules; official daily summaries from the designated observing agency are typically published within a day or two, and the market will follow the contract's stated resolution timeline.
Fresh snow or persistent snow cover increases surface cooling through higher albedo and reduced ground heat flux, often yielding colder overnight minima; the timing of snowfall relative to the overnight low is crucial for its influence.
Station siting (proximity to buildings, pavement, elevation, vegetation) and urban heat island effects can shift measured minima relative to nearby rural sites. Because the contract uses a specific official station, those local characteristics directly determine the recorded value used for resolution.