| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $295K | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the lowest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 10, 2026. It matters because the overnight low reflects synoptic weather patterns that affect energy demand, travel safety, and local operations.
Early March sits in a seasonal transition where Philadelphia can still experience late-winter cold snaps or milder spring conditions; outcomes hinge on the timing and strength of frontal systems and air-mass source regions. Historical variability in this date is driven by passage of cold fronts, storm systems, and overnight radiational cooling, so short-range forecasts and observations are important leading up to the date.
Market prices summarize trader expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will occur; interpret them as the market consensus about likely temperature ranges rather than as a single deterministic forecast.
Resolution follows the market's published rules: the lowest temperature recorded during the contract's specified local date window for March 10, 2026 at the designated official reporting station or agency. Check the market rules page for the exact station, time window, and reporting source used for settlement.
This market contains six discrete outcomes that partition possible low-temperature ranges. The market page lists the exact temperature bins — the winning outcome is the bin that contains the official recorded low.
The contract’s resolution policy addresses data gaps and errors, typically specifying fallback data sources or procedures (for example, alternate official stations or archival datasets). Consult the market rules for the precise fallback and adjudication process.
Monitor surface observations, hourly temperature trends, short-range ensembles and high-resolution models, sky cover forecasts, and surface analyses of frontal position; changes overnight (March 9–10) in cloud cover or front timing often materially affect the low.
The measurement site’s urban setting, proximity to rivers or the bay, elevation, and instrumentation sheltering all affect the reported low; differences between nearby stations can matter, so the contract’s specified station determines which local influences are relevant.