| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily minimum temperature recorded in Philadelphia on April 3, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related volatility or speculating on long-range climate models.
April in Philadelphia is a transitional month, typically characterized by variable spring weather as the region moves away from winter patterns. Historical temperature data for early April shows a broad range of potential outcomes depending on prevailing wind directions, air masses, and the timing of cold fronts moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Analysts generally reference long-term climate averages from the National Weather Service to establish a baseline for these predictions.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather outcomes, where higher prices indicate a greater belief in a specific temperature range occurring.
The official settlement is typically based on the official NWS reporting station at Philadelphia International Airport (PHL).
This market is strictly concerned with the official daily minimum temperature recorded for the calendar day of April 3, 2026.
In the event of sensor failure or missing data, markets typically rely on official NWS retrospective adjustments or secondary authoritative meteorological records.
Yes, temperature outcomes are generally settled based on the integer values provided in the official daily climate report.
Early April in Philadelphia can experience significant swings, ranging from late-season freezes to unseasonably warm spring nights, necessitating a wide spread of outcomes in the market.