| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or above | 99% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 1¢ | 4¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 9, 2026 — an event-driven weather contract that matters to traders, energy managers, and anyone sensitive to short-term temperature risk.
Early March is a transition month in the Northeast, so temperature outcomes can range from winter-like cold snaps to mild, springlike conditions depending on synoptic-scale drivers. Historical variability, recent trends in seasonal patterns, and the precise timing of frontal passages all shape the possible outcomes for this specific date.
Market odds reflect the consensus of traders about which discrete temperature range will be the night/day minimum; they update as new observations and forecasts arrive and should be read as a real-time summary of available information rather than a fixed forecast.
Trading close and the exact resolution time are set by the platform and listed in the market rules; the official outcome is determined after the March 9 observation period using the designated data source named in the contract.
The market resolution source is specified in the event rules — common choices are the National Weather Service/NOAA station that serves NYC or a designated city observation site; check the market description for the exact station or dataset.
The definition (instantaneous vs. hourly minimum vs. daily min) is set in the market’s resolution criteria; traders should review that clause because it affects how short-lived temperature dips are treated.
Fresh snow typically promotes lower overnight lows through higher albedo and radiational cooling, while urban heat island effects tend to keep temperatures higher in dense built areas; the net impact depends on where the official measurement is taken and the spatial extent of snow cover.
Use climatology and recent March records to understand the range of plausible lows and seasonal variability, but combine that with up-to-date synoptic forecasts and model guidance as the date approaches since short-term weather systems often dominate day-to-day outcomes.