| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 44° or below | 10% | 0¢ | 21¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City on March 8, 2026 will be. It matters because the realized low can affect energy demand, public safety planning, and short-term weather-sensitive operations.
Early March in New York sits in the transition from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing from cold, late-winter readings to mild, springlike values depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Long-term climate trends have shifted averages modestly, but day-to-day weather is dominated by the passage of fronts, continental air masses, and coastal influences that determine the realized low.
Market prices represent the current consensus of participants about which outcome is most likely and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees of the final observed temperature. For final resolution, rely on the market's stated data source and rules rather than live prices.
The market close time is listed on the platform (currently TBD); the observation window used for resolution is defined in the market rules—typically the 24-hour local calendar day for March 8, 2026—so check the event's resolution text for exact start/end times and time zone.
The market’s resolution rules name the specific data source and station (commonly a National Weather Service/NOAA official station like Central Park or another designated site); consult the event's rules page to see the exact station and dataset that will be used for settlement.
Outcome definitions, including units (°F or °C), any rounding conventions, and how ranges are constructed, are specified in the market's outcome descriptions and resolution rules; traders should review those details prior to trading.
Tie-handling procedures are spelled out in the market's resolution language; typically the numerical lowest temperature itself determines the outcome and identical simultaneous readings do not change that, but consult the rules for any special tie-break or averaging provisions.
Monitor operational forecast model updates (GFS, ECMWF ensembles), NWS short-term forecasts and advisories for NYC, local surface observations and airport/park automated stations, snow-cover maps, and synoptic analyses of fronts and high-pressure intrusions that could alter overnight cooling.