| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature in New York City will be on March 7, 2026; it matters for travelers, utilities, event planners, and anyone exposed to cold-weather risk. Traders aggregate forecasts and real-time observations to produce a market view of that single-day minimum temperature.
Early March is a transitional period in the Northeast when both lingering winter air masses and milder spring influences are possible, so outcomes can swing with synoptic-scale changes. Historical variability for a given calendar date is large: some years see near-winter lows while others are much milder, and short-term model shifts or local conditions (sea breezes, urban heat island) can change the expected low quickly.
Prices in this market represent the collective, up-to-the-minute assessments of participants about the likely observed minimum on March 7, 2026 and will move as numerical models, observations, and surface conditions evolve. Use market movement alongside official forecast updates to judge how consensus expectations are changing.
The contract’s resolution clause on the event page specifies the designated official observation site and the local time window (typically a 24‑hour local-day period). Check the event details for the exact station and clock times used for settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature range shown on the market page; after the observation period ends, the outcome whose range contains the official recorded minimum temperature is settled as the winner according to the contract’s bin boundaries and inclusion rules.
The exchange’s published settlement rules describe backup data sources and dispute procedures—common fallbacks include alternate nearby official stations or finalized NWS datasets—so consult those rules and the event page for the exact hierarchy and timeline for resolution.
Major model runs (e.g., deterministic and ensemble outputs), shifts in frontal timing, updated surface observations (temperature trends at nearby stations), and short-range radar/satellite evidence of cloud cover or precipitation are the primary drivers of market moves in the 48–72 hours before the target date.
Compare the market outcome or the official observed low to climatological records and daily-minimum distributions for March 7 from NOAA/NCEI or local climate summaries; that comparison will show whether an outcome is within the common range for the date or represents an unusually cold or mild event.