| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° to 38° | 96% | 91¢ | 97¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 39° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 30° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain New York City's lowest observed temperature on March 6, 2026; it matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand forecasting, and local public-safety readiness.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by Arctic intrusions, coastal storms, and late-winter air masses. Historic climatology shows a wide range of possible outcomes on any given date in this season, so short-term forecasts and evolving model runs are especially important. Market prices respond as new model output, satellite data, and surface observations arrive.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about the most likely outcome and update as new weather information becomes available; treat them as a real-time snapshot of collective belief rather than a fixed prediction.
Resolution will follow the market's contract definition of the observation window—check the contract for whether the 24-hour period is local calendar day, UTC, or a specific hourly range; the market's rules specify the precise timeframe used for measurement.
The contract identifies the official resolving station or dataset (for example, a specified NOAA/NWS observing site or official climate dataset); consult the market's resolution source in the event details to see which station or dataset will be used.
The market's resolution rules specify fallback procedures—common approaches include using later official revisions from the designated authority, applying the nearest acceptable station per the contract, or following the data provider's correction policy; review the contract's dispute and missing-data clauses.
Yes—local factors (proximity to water, urban density, elevation) create microclimates, but only the temperature at the contract-specified observing location or dataset determines the market outcome, not temperatures across the entire metropolitan area.
The market's stated close time is listed in the event details (currently TBD); final settlement typically occurs after the official observing agency releases and verifies the relevant daily value and after any stipulated dispute window in the contract has elapsed.