| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or above | 20% | 20¢ | 28¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 68% | 44¢ | 64¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 10% | 5¢ | 11¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 30% | 28¢ | 46¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which discrete temperature range will contain the lowest observed air temperature in New York City on March 5, 2026. Knowing the likely range matters for weather-sensitive planning and illustrates how short-range forecasts and observation practices interact with markets.
March is a transitional month in New York City with large day-to-day variability driven by passing storms, cold fronts, and intrusions of Arctic air; historical lows around early March can span a wide range depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Urban effects (heat retention in built areas) and the exact observation site can shift measured temperatures relative to nearby rural stations. The event page lists six outcomes and is sourced to KALSHI; settlement details and the closing time are shown on the platform and may be updated as the date approaches.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature range is most likely to be the day's minimum given available forecasts, observations, and uncertainty. Use the market as a real‑time signal of consensus expectations, but consult official meteorological observations and forecasts for operational decisions.
Settlement is determined by the data source and station specified in the event's settlement rules on KALSHI. Check the event description or settlement policy for the exact official station and data feed used to declare the outcome.
The market uses the measured ambient air temperature as defined in the event’s settlement rules; wind chill or 'feels like' values are typically excluded. Confirm the precise measurement definition on the platform's settlement page.
Dates are usually interpreted in local time (Eastern Time for New York City), but the exact start/end times and any specific observation window are specified in the event’s settlement rules — review those details on KALSHI.
The market's closing time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); the official outcome is published after the designated observing agency releases the relevant daily observations and KALSHI applies its settlement rules. Monitor the event page for updates.
Operational forecast models (high-resolution ensemble runs), latest surface observations across the NYC boroughs, satellite/infrared cloud cover trends, and mesoscale guidance on wind and radiational cooling all influence market expectations in the 48–72 hours before the date.