| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° to 37° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 31° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in New York City will be on March 4, 2026; it matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone monitoring short-term cold risk. Market prices aggregate forecasts and new information about the state of the atmosphere ahead of that date.
Early March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., with the atmosphere capable of producing late-winter cold snaps, nor'easters, or mild interludes depending on large-scale pattern placement. New York City temperatures on a single day reflect interactions between synoptic storms, cold-air intrusions from Canada, local radiational cooling at night, and surface conditions like snow cover and urban heat effects.
Market odds here represent participants' collective expectations about what the observed minimum temperature will be and update as forecasts and observations change; use them as a realtime signal of how the outlook evolves rather than a fixed prediction.
Check the market's contract text: settlement is based on the temperature observation recorded at the official station and data source specified there (e.g., an NWS/NOAA station or another named observing location).
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for that date, but you should confirm the exact start/end times and time zone in the event's settlement rules.
The market's settlement source is specified in the contract; common choices are National Weather Service/NOAA observations or an identified official station archive — consult the event description for the named provider.
Yes — fresh snow increases surface albedo and promotes radiational cooling overnight, often producing colder minima than bare ground, so snowfall before or on the date can materially influence the observed low.
Settlement fallback procedures are defined in the contract: they typically reference alternate nearby official stations or archived quality-control products; review the event's settlement rules for the exact hierarchy and tie-breaking methods.