| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official minimum temperature recorded in New York City on March 30, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for late-March meteorological conditions in the Northeast United States.
New York City experiences significant temperature variability in late March as the region transitions from winter to spring. Historically, daily minimums are influenced by the movement of Arctic air masses versus warmer air transported from the south. The official data is typically sourced from National Weather Service observations at Central Park, which acts as the primary climate station for the city.
The market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather outcomes based on seasonal averages, long-range climate models, and historical temperature data.
The market relies on the official daily low temperature reported by the National Weather Service for the Central Park, New York station.
The market tracks the lowest temperature reached within the 24-hour period of the calendar day, March 30, 2026.
Historical climate data for late March provides a baseline, though specific annual anomalies can cause significant deviations from those averages.
The market typically relies on the availability of official government reporting; if the station fails to record data, the market terms for settlement will dictate the outcome.
The market uses Fahrenheit as the standard unit for temperature measurement in the United States.