| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 25° to 26° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 20° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 23° to 24° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 21° to 22° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 3, 2026. It matters because low temperatures affect public safety, energy demand, transportation, and short-term weather risk pricing.
New York City temperatures on a given date reflect regional weather systems, local microclimates, and the official observing station used for settlement. Early March is a transitional month with rapid swings possible due to passing cold fronts, arctic intrusions, or milder Atlantic air, so historical variability is high and single-day outcomes can move quickly as forecasts update.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations and react to new observations and model runs; higher-priced outcomes indicate stronger consensus that that temperature range will occur. Use prices as a real-time summary of market sentiment rather than a fixed prediction — they will change as meteorological information evolves.
Settlement will follow the contract's specified official observation source; most weather markets reference the National Weather Service daily summary for the designated NYC station (check the market rules for the exact station used).
Settlement typically occurs after the March 3 local observation period ends and the official daily summary is published; the exact timing depends on the platform's settlement rules and any time allowed for verification.
The outcome uses the local date’s 24-hour observation window defined by the settlement source, so the lowest temperature is the minimum reported within March 3 local time at the designated station — overnight hour timing can determine whether a low is counted on March 3 versus March 4.
Historical climatology shows typical early-March variability and the range of plausible lows, which can contextualize how unusual a given forecast would be; traders combine that climatology with current model runs and observations to form expectations.
Watch updated deterministic and ensemble model runs, national weather service forecasts and watches, airport METARs, hourly surface observations around NYC, and any sudden synoptic changes (cold fronts, coastal development) that would alter overnight cooling or cloud cover.