| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 28, 2026, which matters for weather-sensitive operations, risk management, and short-term climate interest.
Late March is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability driven by advancing spring patterns; historical March lows vary widely depending on synoptic setup and local microclimates. Official temperature records for NYC come from a small set of long-running observing stations and reanalyses, and the market will settle to a specific official data source defined in its rules.
Market prices summarize traders’ collective expectations and update as new forecasts and observations arrive; interpret prices as relative indicators of which outcomes the market currently favors rather than fixed truths.
The market’s settlement specification names the official station or dataset used for settlement; common choices are NWS/NOAA observing stations (e.g., Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK) or a designated consolidated dataset — check the market contract details to see which one applies.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar date (00:00 to 23:59 local time, Eastern Time for NYC) or the reporting-day definition specified in the contract; confirm the market’s settlement rules for the precise window and reporting convention.
This market is structured into six mutually exclusive outcomes that partition the possible lowest-temperature range; the market page lists the exact numeric cutoffs or labeled brackets for each outcome — review that listing to see how temperatures map to outcomes.
Settlement follows the market’s dispute and settlement policy: typically the designated official dataset’s final or corrected values are used, and if data are missing the rules often specify fallback stations or verification procedures; consult the contract’s resolution section for details.
Review official daily minimum temperature records for NYC (Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK) for late-March dates, recent climatological normals, and archived synoptic patterns for similar cold events; also monitor short- and medium-range numerical weather forecasts in the days leading up to March 28.