| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes will correspond to the lowest observed air temperature in New York City on March 27, 2026. It matters because late-March temperatures influence energy demand, transit operations, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions in the region.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., with large swings possible between lingering winter air masses and early spring warmth; synoptic-scale patterns (cold fronts, Arctic intrusions, or warm troughs) drive most of the variation. New York City’s urban environment, coastal proximity, and the placement of official observing stations also affect the recorded low. This market aggregates traders’ views on which of six predefined temperature outcomes will be the official low for that calendar date.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which outcome will be observed at the designated official station for NYC on March 27, 2026. To interpret prices, compare them to your own assessment of weather drivers and the official observation method specified in the contract.
The winning outcome will be determined by the official air temperature observation for the contract’s specified New York City observing station on the calendar date March 27, 2026, as reported by the designated reporting agency in the contract; consult the market rules for the precise station and metric used.
The six discrete outcomes are the mutually exclusive temperature categories or exact values listed on the market page; view the market’s outcome labels and definitions on the exchange’s contract page to see the exact ranges or values.
Settlement occurs after the official observation for March 27 is published by the reporting agency named in the contract; the exchange will follow its published settlement timeline and procedures, which specify how long they wait for official data and any verification steps.
Consider that late March is a high-variability month: nights can be influenced by lingering winter air masses, late-season storms, or moderating spring patterns. Look at recent years’ late-March synoptic setups, trends in seasonality, and the typical range of night-time temperatures for the city when forming an assessment.
The contract specifies the official reporting agency and observing station (for example, a National Weather Service/NOAA designated station); check the market’s settlement source clause to confirm the exact data provider and station used for this event.