| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 26, 2026. It matters to traders, forecasters, and anyone tracking late‑winter weather risk for planning and hedging.
Late March sits in the transition from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing widely depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Factors such as cold-air intrusions, coastal storms, cloud cover, and urban microclimates drive large day‑to‑day variability; long‑term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures, but short‑term volatility remains important.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants based on forecasts, observations, and model guidance and update as new information arrives. They are a dynamic summary of market views, not an official meteorological forecast.
The market close date is listed on the market page (currently TBD). The winning outcome will be determined after the March 26, 2026 observation period using the authoritative dataset specified in the contract, and KALSHI will publish the resolution per its rules.
The market uses the official observing station or dataset named in the contract language—typically the NOAA/NWS climate station representing New York City (commonly Central Park). Consult the contract text on KALSHI for the exact authoritative source.
Yes. The date refers to the local calendar day in New York City (Eastern Time). Observations falling within the local 24‑hour window for March 26, 2026 will be considered, following the reporting conventions of the named data source.
Watch short‑range and ensemble model guidance (e.g., ECMWF/GFS ensembles), surface observations and trends, frontal timing, cloud and precipitation forecasts (which affect radiative cooling), snow cover, and official NWS updates or advisories for the region.
Resolution follows the authoritative dataset and KALSHI's stated resolution policy in the contract. Provisional real‑time values may be superseded by quality‑controlled final values; the contract specifies which dataset and revision policy govern the final outcome.