| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be the lowest observed in New York City on March 25, 2026. It matters for traders and observers because late‑March temperatures can swing rapidly and reflect short‑term synoptic conditions and local effects.
Late March sits in the seasonal transition between winter and spring in the Northeast U.S., so forecasts can be driven by fast‑moving storms, Arctic intrusions, or mild air masses. Historical variability is high: some years see late cold snaps while others are already mild, and local factors (urban heat island, snow cover) can alter site‑specific readings. This market will settle to an official observational source specified in the contract.
Market odds reflect aggregated expectations about which temperature range will be observed on the contract date; interpret them as the crowd’s view of relative likelihoods, not certainties. Always check the contract’s settlement rules and official data source before trading.
The contract will specify the official reporting station or data source used for settlement (for example an NWS/NOAA station or specified airport/observation site). Traders should read the market’s settlement clause to see the exact station and dataset named.
Settlement windows are defined in the market rules; typically the lowest temperature is taken from the local calendar day (midnight to 23:59:59 local time) or from a specified observation period. Confirm the contract text for the precise start and end times and timezone.
The market’s outcome ranges and their boundaries are listed in the event description. If the observed value equals a boundary, the contract’s settlement rules (rounding or tie‑breaker procedures) determine which outcome wins. Check the event page for those tie‑breaking details.
Consider the climatological transition in late March, recent multi‑week temperature trends, any lingering snowpack, and the frequency of late‑season cold snaps in the New York City area. Also factor in urban effects and local microclimates that can shift station readings relative to regional forecasts.
Traders often monitor official NWS forecasts and observations, NOAA model outputs (global and high‑resolution), short‑range models (e.g., HRRR), METAR/airport observations, satellite and radar for cloud/precip timing, and private high‑resolution guidance. Watching the designated settlement station’s live observations is especially important overnight.