| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the lowest recorded in New York City on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders and observers who want to express views on short‑term weather risk and compare forecasts to realized observations.
Late March in New York City is a highly variable time of year when winter air masses can still produce very cold readings even as spring warming begins. Historical records show wide day‑to‑day swings driven by synoptic systems, and longer‑term climate trends influence the baseline and frequency of cold extremes without eliminating short‑term variability.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of participants about which temperature bin will be the lowest observed on that date; they update as new weather model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive, so interpret them as a snapshot of collective expectations rather than fixed truth.
The market settles to the value specified in its official rules; exchanges typically name a specific observing station or authoritative dataset (for example, an NWS station) and a measurement method—consult the event's rules on the market page to see the designated data source.
The market's settlement documentation identifies the precise location or dataset used; some markets use a single official station (e.g., Central Park or an airport station) while others may reference a metropolitan composite—check the event specifications to confirm which applies.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins defined in the event listing; the market finalizes to the bin that contains the official observed lowest temperature for the date according to the specified source, after any standard data processing and revisions described in the rules.
The event's settlement rules specify the observation window (commonly local calendar day, e.g., 00:00–23:59 local time) and any timezone conventions; consult those rules to confirm the exact period that will be used for measuring the low.
Contingency procedures are described in the market's terms—options include using an alternate official source, using preliminary observations subject to later revision, or voiding the market; check the event's dispute and settlement policies for the exact process.