| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will contain the lowest observed air temperature in New York City during March 23, 2026. Outcomes matter for traders who want to express views on short-term weather risks that affect travel, energy demand, and outdoor activity.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period: the city can see anything from a cold, late-season air mass to mild, springlike conditions depending on the synoptic pattern. Day-to-day variability is driven primarily by large-scale weather systems, while long-term warming trends can nudge the baseline climatology upward over decades.
Market prices summarize participants' collective expectations about which temperature bucket (one of the six outcomes) will contain the official low on that date. Settlement will follow the authoritative observational source and mapping specified in the market rules, not real-time forecasts.
Settlement will use the specific source and station named in the market's settlement rules; common choices include the official NOAA/NWS daily summary for the designated New York observing site. Check the event description for the exact station or dataset that will be used to settle this contract.
The date typically refers to the local 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59:59 in New York local time (Eastern Time). Because March 23, 2026 falls during daylight saving time, local time will be Eastern Daylight Time; confirm the event's settlement clause for any deviations.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature value or range specified on the event page. After the official observational data are published, the outcome whose range contains the recorded lowest temperature will be declared the winner per the market's settlement rules.
Markets typically follow the contingency and revision policies in their rulebook: they may use the final official daily climate summary, an alternate agreed-upon station, or the dataset version specified by the administrator. If data are missing or revised, the event's settlement procedures explain which source and revision cut-off govern the outcome.
Short-range numerical model guidance (e.g., 0–72 hour model runs), surface observations overnight, cloud-cover forecasts, expected frontal passages, wind direction, and local microclimate considerations are most informative. Historical climatology for late March provides baseline expectations, but the immediate synoptic setup determines the actual low.