| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 22, 2026. It matters for traders and weather-aware participants because temperature extremes drive demand for heating, travel impacts, and short-term energy and retail behaviors.
New York City's daily temperature is the product of regional weather systems and local microclimates; historically March can produce a wide range of temperatures as winter systems transition to spring. Official daily minima for NYC are usually taken from National Weather Service/NOAA observations at the designated climate station for the city, and single-day extremes often reflect a combination of cold air intrusions, cloud cover, wind, and surface conditions like snow cover.
Prediction market odds reflect the crowd's aggregated view of what the official reported minimum will be according to the market's resolution rules. Interpreting odds here is about understanding how traders collectively assess the meteorological factors and the event's resolution conventions, not about forecasting an exact weather model run.
The event will resolve according to the market's stated resolution rules; many U.S. weather markets use National Weather Service/NOAA official observations for the Central Park climate station, but you should confirm the exact instrument, station ID, and data source listed in this market's rules.
The market's resolution text defines the date boundary; typically the daily minimum for Mar 22 is the lowest observation within the local civil date (00:00 to 23:59 local time), but verify the market's rules to confirm the precise window and time zone used for resolution.
Resolution normally occurs after the official daily climate summary for Mar 22 is posted by the designated data provider; the market's rules will state the expected resolution timing or any expected reporting lag—check those details for the specific publication schedule.
Daily minima commonly occur in the pre-dawn hours due to overnight radiational cooling, so conditions overnight (clear skies, light winds) are often decisive; traders watch expected sunrise timing, cloud cover, wind forecast, and any frontal passages that night to assess likely minima.
The market will follow its stated contingency rules for missing or questionable observations—these typically reference alternative official data sources, quality-controlled reanalysis, or arbitration procedures. Review the market's resolution policy to see the exact fallback and dispute process for this event.