| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will record the lowest air temperature in New York City on March 21, 2026. The result matters to traders and to people tracking short-term weather risk because overnight lows influence energy use, transportation, and public safety planning.
Late March is a transitional period in the New York City climate where conditions can swing between wintry and mild depending on synoptic-scale weather systems. Local factors—urban heat island, proximity to the coast, recent snow cover—and which official observing station is used can all change the realized minimum temperature compared with regional forecasts.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectations of participants about which temperature bin will be the lowest for that date; they update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change. Prices are informative about consensus expectations but are not guarantees of the final recorded temperature.
The market will resolve according to the official data source and station specified in the contract terms on the event page. Traders should consult the event’s settlement rules to see which observing station and which published data feed will be used for resolution.
This event offers six outcomes, each representing a predefined temperature range (a bin) for the lowest recorded temperature on March 21, 2026. The event page lists the exact temperature boundaries for each outcome.
The platform’s event page shows the market close time (currently listed as TBD). The final result will be declared after the official daily observations for March 21, 2026 are published by the specified data source and any stated post-processing windows have elapsed.
Watch synoptic model guidance for frontal passages or cold-air intrusions, overnight cloud cover and wind forecasts, snow-cover analyses, and real-time surface observations in the 48–72 hours before the date, as these most strongly influence minimum temperatures.
Microclimates across NYC can produce different minima: inland and elevated sites typically cool more than waterfront locations, and the urban heat island can raise nighttime lows. Because the contract specifies a particular observing station or data feed, only that designated measurement determines the outcome.