| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 20, 2026. It matters because temperature outcomes on a specific date reflect short‑term weather dynamics and can be hedged or speculated on by traders.
Late March is a transitional period for New York City weather, when synoptic systems, cold air intrusions, and urban microclimates all interact to produce wide day‑to‑day variability. Historical records for a calendar date show considerable spread from year to year, so single‑day temperature markets are sensitive to forecasts, model updates, and last‑minute atmospheric changes.
Market prices express the consensus view of traders about which of the listed temperature outcomes is most likely; they update as new meteorological data and model guidance appear. Use the market as a dynamic indicator of expectation, not as a definitive forecast.
Settlement will follow the data source and station(s) specified in the market's official description on the KALSHI platform; check that event page for the precise observing site and dataset used for final determination.
The market uses the metric defined in the event's settlement rules (typically the minimum official air temperature for the local calendar day as recorded by the designated observing network); consult the event's settlement language on KALSHI to confirm the exact definition and any rounding rules.
The market presents six mutually exclusive outcomes that partition possible lowest‑temperature values (for example, as discrete values or ranges); view the market page to see the exact boundaries and outcome labels that will determine settlement.
The event close time is listed as TBD on the page; once a close is set, trading will end then and settlement will occur after the official observation is published according to KALSHI's stated settlement timeline and procedures.
Settlement depends on the designated official station(s) and their quality control; issues like instrument outages, relocations, or anomalous readings are resolved according to the market's dispute and data‑validity rules—refer to the event's settlement policy for how such cases are handled.