| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 19° to 20° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 17° to 18° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 12° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 13° to 14° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 15° to 16° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will record the lowest air temperature in New York City on March 2, 2026; outcomes matter for local preparedness, energy demand forecasts, and weather-sensitive operations.
Late winter and early spring in New York City can produce a wide range of conditions—from lingering cold spells to milder, spring-like days—so a single date can be influenced by large-scale patterns and local effects. Long-term warming has raised average temperatures, but short-term synoptic patterns (arctic intrusions, coastal storms, or clear radiational nights) still drive much of the day-to-day variability that determines a given day's low.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and views about which temperature range will be the day's lowest for the specified observation site and period; use the contract terms and recent forecast trends to interpret market movement rather than raw prices as fixed forecasts.
Settlement will follow the contract's specified observation site, reporting agency, temperature units, and the 24‑hour observation window; consult the market's contract description to see which official station and final data source are used for this specific event.
The event is structured as six mutually exclusive outcomes that each represent a defined temperature interval for the day's minimum; the exact degree bins and whether values are in °F or °C are listed on the market page—check there for the precise boundaries.
The contract specifies a single official reporting source for settlement; if other stations differ, those differences do not affect settlement unless the contract allows alternate sources—review the market's settlement rules for tie‑breakers or appeals.
The market typically settles after the designated reporting agency publishes its official daily summary for Mar 2, 2026; any post‑publication adjustments are handled only if the contract allows for revised values—check the settlement timeline and dispute window in the market rules.
Traders should consider the official station's siting (urban vs. park locations), recent snow cover that enhances radiational cooling, overnight wind and cloud forecasts, and proximity to the coast or rivers—these local modifiers can shift the likely minimum relative to regional model guidance.