| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25° to 26° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined ranges will contain the lowest air temperature observed in New York City on March 19, 2026. It matters for traders assessing short‑term weather risk and for anyone tracking how a specific day compares to seasonal expectations.
March is a transitional month in the Northeast, so daily lows can swing widely depending on the passage of cold fronts, late‑season storms, or unseasonably warm air masses. Historical daily variability and the urban heat island mean New York City lows can diverge from regional rural observations or climate normals. The market aggregates participants' views about that single calendar day's overnight minimum as reported by the designated official source.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders about which temperature range will be realized for that date and should be read as a market signal, not a deterministic forecast. Always check the event page for the exact outcome definitions and resolution source before trading.
The lowest air temperature is the minimum valid observation during the market's defined calendar day for the designated observation station and time zone, as specified in the market's resolution rules; consult the event page for the precise definition.
The event page lists the official resolution source used by the market operator; many NYC temperature markets reference the National Weather Service observation for the city’s official station, but you must confirm the exact source and station name on this market's rules.
The six outcomes correspond to six mutually exclusive, adjacent temperature intervals that together cover the feasible range of lows for that day; the exact interval boundaries and labels are shown on the market page and determine which outcome wins once the official value is published.
Trading close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); resolution typically follows publication of the official daily minimum by the designated data provider and will occur according to the timetable in the market's rules—check the event page for the exact resolution timing.
Resolution procedures for missing or ambiguous data are defined in the market's rules; common practices include using the nearest valid station, the first valid observation, or an alternate official dataset—refer to the event's resolution policy on the event page for the operator’s specified method.