| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 19° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 22° to 23° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 24° to 25° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° to 27° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20° to 21° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the observed lowest air temperature in New York City on March 18, 2026. The outcome matters for weather-sensitive operations, short-term energy demand, and as an indicator of near-term climate variability in the NYC region.
Mid-March is a transitional period in the Northeast U.S., when lingering winter air masses can still produce cold nights while early-season warming and storms become more common. Official temperature reporting for NYC is typically based on the National Weather Service's designated station (commonly Central Park), so forecasts and outcomes are anchored to that observation practice. Short-term model forecasts, recent synoptic trends, and urban microclimates all influence expectations for any single date.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which outcome will be observed, updating as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real-time signal of consensus while checking the market's settlement rules and the official observation source before drawing conclusions.
Settlement typically follows the market's specified official source, commonly the National Weather Service observation at the designated NYC station (often Central Park). Check the event page or market rules to confirm the exact station and data source used for settlement.
The measurement window is the local calendar day for March 18, 2026 (local times in New York City); many weather contracts use 00:00 to 23:59 local time, so verify the market's rule for exact start/end and whether times are expressed in ET or UTC.
Markets reference their settlement rules for contingencies: common approaches include using the National Weather Service's revised/quality-controlled data, a nearby official station as backup, or declared settlement by the exchange. Participants should read the market's dispute and fallback procedures before trading.
Operational model runs and new observations up to the day of the event often shift expectations—changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, or wind forecasts can move the market as traders update their views based on evolving synoptic forecasts and ensemble spreads.
Resolution of boundary values depends on the contract wording: markets specify whether endpoints are inclusive/exclusive and how exact matches are handled. Refer to the event's settlement rules to see how exact boundary temperatures and ties are treated.