| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature observed in New York City will be on March 17, 2026. Outcomes provide a way to trade expectations about a single-day weather extreme that matters to transportation, utilities, and event planners.
Late-winter and early-spring temperatures in New York City can swing widely from unseasonably cold to mild within a matter of days, driven by large-scale weather patterns and local factors. Historical records show both late-season cold snaps and milder years, and recent climate trends have altered typical baselines while not eliminating short-term variability. Forecasts and market sentiment will typically evolve as short- and medium-range model guidance and surface observations come in.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome will match the observed minimum temperature on the specified date; they update as new forecasts, observations, and risk preferences arrive. Use prices as a real-time summary of expectations rather than a fixed forecast—expect movement as meteorological data are updated closer to the date.
Settlement will be based on the official observing source specified by the event rules on the platform; that source's published lowest air temperature for New York City on the local date of March 17, 2026, determines the winning outcome. Always check the event's resolution section for the definitive station and reporting authority.
The six outcomes partition the range of possible minimum temperatures into mutually exclusive bins. The outcome whose temperature range contains the officially observed minimum for March 17, 2026, as reported by the designated source will be declared the winner.
The market typically settles after the designated observing agency publishes its daily or hourly summary that includes the minimum temperature for the local date. The platform will reference that published value; check the event page after the date for the posted resolution and source citation.
Watch model runs for shifts in the position and strength of cold fronts or troughs, updates to surface and upper-air analyses, night-time cloud and wind forecasts, recent snowfall or snowpack changes near the city, and short-term observations from nearby stations—each can materially change expectations for the daily minimum.
Climatology for a given calendar date provides a baseline range and context (typical variability and past extremes), but year-to-year atmospheric setup often dominates the realized minimum. Historical patterns are useful for framing plausibility but should be combined with current meteorological model guidance when forming expectations.