| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 16, 2026. It matters because intra-day low temperatures on a specific date reflect short-range weather dynamics and can indicate the presence of cold outbreaks or unusually mild conditions for mid‑March.
Mid‑March in New York City is a transitional period with high variability: some years still see freezing nights while others have early spring warmth. Settlement depends on the precise observation site and official measurement protocols specified by the contract, so traders pay attention to both synoptic forecasts and the designated station's reporting practices.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about which temperature outcome is most likely given current forecasts and observations; use them as a real‑time signal that updates as model runs, observations, and surface conditions evolve.
The contract's settlement terms specify the official data source and station; check the event details on the platform. If the listing is ambiguous, the platform will name the exact NOAA/NWS or other official station/dataset used for settlement before the market closes.
The date is defined according to local New York (Eastern Time) calendar day—from 00:00 to 23:59 local time—as recorded in the chosen official observation dataset; settlement follows the timestamps in that dataset.
The settlement uses the minimum value as reported by the specified official station or dataset, which is typically either the lowest hourly observation or the station's recorded daily minimum; the contract defines which reporting method governs settlement.
Platforms follow their published rules: if the official data provider issues a correction within the contract's allowed correction window and the contract references that provider, the corrected value may be used for settlement per the platform's procedures; check the contract's dispute and correction policy.
Traders watch short‑range numerical weather prediction models (operational and convection‑allowing), NWS forecast discussions, surface observations and ASOS/COOP station reports, radar and satellite during the overnight period, and local meteorologist analyses to assess cloud cover, wind trends, and potential radiational cooling.