| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 30° to 31° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 28° to 29° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest air temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 15, 2026. The outcome matters for short‑term energy demand, travel disruption risk, and local weather impacts.
March is a transitional month when arctic intrusions, spring warmth, and variable storm tracks can all influence daily lows; interannual variability is large. Long‑term climate trends and recent seasonal patterns can shift the typical range, but day‑to‑day weather systems usually determine the actual minimum on a given date.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants based on current forecasts, observations, and model output; they update as new information arrives and are not guarantees of a specific outcome.
Check the event's resolution rules on the platform; typically the lowest air temperature is taken from the 24‑hour local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) at the specified observation site, but the event page will state the official reporting window.
Resolution usually relies on a named official climate observation site (commonly the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for New York City); consult the event's resolution clause to see which station or data source will be used.
As model runs, satellite data, and surface observations update, traders incorporate that information into prices; rapid changes in model consensus or incoming observations can move expectations quickly.
The urban heat island moderates overnight lows relative to nearby rural areas, and small changes in sensor siting or local infrastructure can alter readings; outcomes reflect the specific official station, not citywide minima.
Platform resolution policies typically specify fallback procedures (alternative official datasets or adjudication); review the event's stated resolution policy on KALSHI for details on tie‑breaking and data gaps.