| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest observed air temperature in New York City will be on March 14, 2026. It matters for weather-dependent planning and for traders who want to express views on short-term temperature risk in the NYC area.
Mid-March is a transitional period in the Northeast U.S., so daily minimum temperatures can swing between late-winter cold and early-spring mildness depending on synoptic patterns. The outcome depends on where the official observation is taken and how that site behaves (urban heat island, elevation, local exposure). Historical variability on this date means forecasts can change rapidly as model runs and observations update.
Market odds summarize traders' aggregated information, including forecast models and recent observations; they move as new weather model runs and observations arrive. Use the odds as a realtime signal of consensus expectations, not as a fixed forecast.
The market will be resolved using the official observation source specified on the event page; that source is typically an NWS/NOAA observing station named there (for example, Central Park or another specified station). Check the event's resolution rules for the exact station and dataset that will be used.
The measurement counts for the local calendar day at the specified observing station (Eastern Time). Resolution typically uses the official observations recorded between 00:00 and 23:59 local time for March 14 as defined by the event's resolution source—confirm on the event page.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive temperature bins or categories that together cover the range of possible lowest temperatures for that date. The market page lists the exact temperature breakpoints and labels for each outcome.
The event page indicates the trading close time and resolution schedule; if the close is listed as TBD, monitor the page for updates. Resolution occurs after the official observational data for March 14 are released and validated by the named source; timing depends on that source's data publication practices.
Traders should remember that mid-March often shows large day-to-day variance as winter systems still occur while spring warms the region. Consider recent climatological normals for March, recent multi-day trends, model ensemble spreads, and local factors (snow cover, urban microclimates) that can shift the overnight minimum.