| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 31° to 32° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 27° to 28° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 26° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 29° to 30° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the lowest temperature recorded in New York City will be on March 13, 2026; it matters for participants interested in weather risk, energy demand, travel impacts, and climate variability.
March is a transitional month in New York City with large day-to-day swings driven by late-winter air masses, coastal systems, and the timing of springlike intrusions. Historical March dates have produced both subfreezing nights and much milder conditions, so weather models, synoptic patterns, and local conditions all shape expectations for this specific date.
Market prices represent traders' collective view of which outcome is most likely and should be interpreted as a real-time, consensus-based signal rather than a deterministic forecast.
The settlement uses the official observing station and data source specified in the market's settlement rules; that designation (for example, an NWS/NOAA station such as Central Park) is shown on the market page. If the market page does not make the source clear, the exchange will announce the official source and method prior to settlement.
Settlement typically follows the local calendar date at the designated observing station (the 24-hour period of March 13 local time, accounting for daylight saving where applicable). The market's settlement rules state the exact start and end times, so consult those rules on the market page for this event.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature interval or discrete values listed on the market page; the observed lowest temperature will be rounded or binned according to the rounding and interval rules stated in the market documentation. Check the outcome labels and the market's rounding/precision rules to see how the observation converts to an outcome.
The market page shows the official close time (currently marked TBD for this event); the operator will publish a firm close time before trading ends or follow the platform's standard closing procedures. Settlement is performed after the designated observing authority publishes the official temperature for March 13, 2026, and timing for that publication is governed by the data source and the market's settlement rules.
Use long-term climatology (local normals and historical variability) and recent seasonal trends to set a baseline expectation, then adjust for current model forecasts and the synoptic pattern leading into the date. Reliable sources for historical context include NOAA/NCEI climate normals and local station records; remember that late-season cold snaps and coastal influences can produce outcomes far from the climatological mean.