| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature band will contain New York City's lowest observed temperature on March 12, 2026; it matters to traders interested in short-term weather risk and to anyone tracking early‑spring temperature volatility in a major city.
New York City sees large swings in low temperatures this time of year because winter-to-spring transitions can produce both lingering cold-air outbreaks and milder air masses. Historical variability, urban heat-island effects, and the exact observation site (Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK, etc.) all influence reported lows. The market has six mutually exclusive outcomes (temperature bins); close time is listed as TBD by the platform.
Prediction market prices reflect participants' aggregated expectations for which temperature bin will contain the day's minimum; prices move as new model runs, observations, and local forecasts arrive. For resolution details and the authoritative data source, consult the contract rules on the platform.
The event refers to the calendar day March 12, 2026 in local New York time (Eastern Time); because U.S. daylight saving time begins in early March, March 12, 2026 falls in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). The official 24-hour window is 00:00–23:59 local time unless the contract rules specify otherwise.
The contract’s rulebook specifies the authoritative data source and station (for example, an NWS/NOAA observing station such as Central Park or a specified airport); check the market’s resolution source in the platform’s event details to know which station and dataset will be used.
Each outcome represents a non-overlapping temperature range; after the official lowest temperature for March 12 is published by the designated source, the outcome whose range contains that observed temperature is declared the winner. Tie and boundary handling follow the platform’s published resolution rules.
The platform lists the market close as TBD; trading typically stops at the platform-specified close time. Resolution occurs after the designated official source publishes the day's observations, and final settlement is posted once the platform confirms the official value per its rules — this can take hours to a few days.
Shifts in the large-scale pattern (arrival of a cold front or warm surge), overnight cloudiness, precipitation and snow cover, onshore vs. offshore wind changes, and short-term model adjustments based on new observations can all materially alter the expected overnight minimum.