| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or above | 96% | 91¢ | 97¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will represent New York City's lowest air temperature on March 11, 2026. It matters to weather traders, energy and event planners, and anyone hedging temperature-sensitive exposure for that date.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period when readings can swing from near-winter chills to mild, spring-like values depending on synoptic pattern. The realized low on a single calendar day is driven by large-scale air masses, frontal timing, cloud cover and local urban effects. This market lets participants express and trade expectations about that single-day minimum.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about which discrete outcome will occur but are not guarantees of the result. Always consult the market's settlement text to see the exact outcome buckets, official observation source, and measurement window used to determine the winning outcome.
The market resolves to the official data source and station named in the contract's settlement rules; check the market page for the exact station (for example, the specified National Weather Service observing site).
The measurement window is defined in the contract's resolution text—typically the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) or the lowest reported value during that period as recorded by the named station; verify the precise window on the market page.
The contract's description will state the unit used; U.S.-based weather contracts commonly use degrees Fahrenheit unless the market text specifies otherwise—confirm on the market rules.
Settlement timing follows the procedures in the market's rules; resolution typically occurs after the official observation is published by the named source and within the platform's stated settlement window—see the market page for exact timing.
Identify the exact observing location in the contract, then consider local influences (proximity to water, elevation, urban density) and recent differences between that station and broader forecasts; outcomes hinge on the specified station's recorded minimum.