| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or above | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the lowest in New York City on March 10, 2026; it matters to traders interested in short-term weather risk and to anyone tracking expectations for an early-spring cold or warm anomaly. Market prices summarize collective forecasts and respond to evolving weather information.
March in New York City is a highly variable month: it can feature late winter cold snaps as well as early spring warmth, so single-day extremes are driven by synoptic-scale patterns. Historical variability and recent climate trends can bias the baseline expectation, but day-to-day forecasts are dominated by the position of large-scale fronts, storm systems, and local conditions.
Market odds reflect the consensus of participants given current information and will move as forecasts, observations, and trader sentiment change; they are a real-time signal of market belief, not a guarantee of the eventual observed temperature.
Resolution is based on the lowest reported temperature during the local calendar day of March 10, 2026 (the market's specified local time window); settlement happens after the official resolving data source publishes its final observations—check the event page for the exact resolution timing.
The market's terms specify the official station or dataset used for resolution; exchanges commonly reference an NWS/NOAA observing site (for example, a Central Park station) or a defined aggregated dataset—confirm the exact resolver listed on the event page before trading.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature bucket or exact value as defined on the event page; verify the exact boundaries, rounding rules, and whether values are reported in Fahrenheit or Celsius prior to trading.
Markets include contingency and dispute procedures in their rules—typical approaches use alternate nearby stations, provisional datasets, or arbitration per the exchange's resolution policy; consult the market's official dispute and fallback provisions for details.
Follow National Weather Service forecasts and discussions, operational model updates (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), local METAR/ASOS observations for NYC, satellite and radar for cloud cover and frontal timing, and surface/snow reports that can change overnight minimum expectations.