| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 32° to 33° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 34° to 35° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily minimum temperature recorded in New York City on April 7, 2026. It provides a way to hedge against or speculate on meteorological volatility during the mid-spring transition period.
April in New York City is characterized by transitional weather as the region emerges from winter, often featuring highly variable temperatures influenced by shifting jet streams and Atlantic coastal currents. Historical records show that daily lows for this date can fluctuate significantly based on whether a cold front is moving off the coast or if there is a warm air mass dominance. Data for this market is derived from official National Weather Service reports for Central Park, the standard climate observation point for the city.
Market valuations represent the collective outlook on the likelihood of different temperature ranges, reflecting current seasonal climate forecasts and historical climatological data.
The data is sourced from the official National Weather Service observations recorded at the Central Park weather station.
In the event of an official station outage, the market will rely on secondary data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the nearest reliable NWS reporting center.
No, this market tracks the ambient air temperature, not the wind chill index or 'feels-like' temperature.
The lowest temperature is defined as the minimum dry-bulb temperature recorded during the 24-hour period of April 7, 2026, based on local time in New York City.
Yes, spring in New York is notoriously volatile, with historical lows ranging from near-freezing conditions to mild spring temperatures depending on the prevailing wind direction.