| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on April 6, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for traders to hedge against or speculate on meteorological variability in the region.
New York City’s spring weather is notoriously volatile, influenced by the transition between late-winter cold fronts and early-spring warming trends. Historical climate data for early April shows a wide range of potential temperatures, often dictated by the positioning of the jet stream and Atlantic coastal storm patterns. This market relies on data sourced from officially recognized weather monitoring stations.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather patterns, where higher concentrations of volume toward specific temperature brackets indicate the market's consensus on the likely thermal outcome.
The market utilizes official records from the National Weather Service monitoring station located at Central Park, which serves as the primary climate site for New York City.
The lowest temperature is the minimum daily value recorded by the official sensor between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Eastern Time on April 6, 2026.
No, the market is based strictly on the ambient dry-bulb air temperature as reported by official meteorological data.
In the event of sensor failure or missing data, the market will defer to official reports released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the National Weather Service.
April 6 falls during a period of significant seasonal transition in New York City, where the divergence between late-season frosts and early-spring heat waves creates high uncertainty for weather modeling.