| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 36° to 37° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° to 39° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official lowest temperature recorded in New York City on April 3, 2026. Predicting specific meteorological events provides insight into regional climate trends and local temperature variability.
New York City’s early April weather is transitionary, often characterized by the shift from lingering winter chills to early spring warmth. Historical data indicates that daily low temperatures during this time can fluctuate significantly based on passing cold fronts, coastal storm activity, and atmospheric pressure systems. Because early spring weather is notoriously volatile, predicting the specific floor of the temperature range requires balancing climatological averages against long-range meteorological patterns.
The market prices reflect the aggregate expectation of future weather patterns, incorporating professional meteorological forecasts and historical seasonal norms.
Official NYC temperature data is typically sourced from the National Weather Service's designated observation station, usually located at Central Park.
No, the market refers to the actual air temperature recorded by the thermometer, not the 'feels-like' or wind chill index.
The market relies on the official data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or the National Weather Service (NWS).
By April 3, the increased solar angle and longer days generally provide a warming trend, though late-season winter weather systems can still cause sharp, temporary drops in temperature.
Historically, early April lows in NYC generally range from the mid-30s to the low-50s Fahrenheit, though extreme events outside this range have occurred.